Grexit?

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Full disclosure: I have no idea what will happen with Greece. I follow it to some extent like others in the industry, but to be honest its a little bit boring. Will they come to an agreement? Is Europe going to cave? Will the Greeks be able to pay? I don't know. What's worse I don't really care that much.  Pay. Don't pay.  Whatever, it's summer and the weather is beautiful so there are many things I would rather be doing right now than reading about man-made solutions to man-made problems. 

 

 

You might say to yourself "this guy wrote just a week or two ago about how investing in Europe is a good idea, and now he says he doesn't care? What's going on?"  So let me explain a little.  First of all, I'm concerned with investing, not trading.  I'm not worried about what happens tomorrow because I have no idea, I care about next year and the next five years.  It's from that standpoint that I can say that I think there are opportunities there. Second, and perhaps more important is that Greece is almost a non-factor.  

 

When I look at some of the companies in Europe and the types of business they run, the Greek economy appears to be nearly meaningless.  Will Nestle sell many fewer bottles of water, Delissio pizzas or chocolates (amongst a few of their offerings!) due to a Greek default? Will Unilever find their soap or deodorant markets dried up if the Greeks fail to make bond payments? Are companies like Sanofi and Novartis going to have trouble finding a market for their pharmaceuticals if Europe decides not to lend to the Greeks? The list goes on.  

 

And by the way, as I write this, the Europeans have allegedly agreed to provide the Greeks with more money as an emergency plan to keep them from defaulting.  While the rhetoric in the media hasn't softened at all (with both sides claiming the other hasn't moved), you know the old saying about actions speaking louder than words. Its clear that the European Union doesn't want the Greeks to default here, and the Greeks aren't in a hurry to cut themselves loose either.  I don't know what the future holds for these two dance partners, but I do know an opportunity when I see it.  If you see some multi-nationals who end up pulled down